Time for Qualifying Analysis for the Japanese Grand Prix. What a qualifying session today! Cars going off left, right and centre, three red flags, penalties all around and poor Glock getting injured!
To be honest, there’s way too much info to summarise but I will give it a go anyway. Webber could not qualify as he damaged the car in the morning practice session, Alguersuari went off at Degner in Q2, causing the first red flag. When Q2 was restarted, Glock went off at the last corner after the Casio chicane before anyone could set a time. He sustained a wound on his left leg and was airlifted to hospital. The car was wrecked and he may not be able to race tomorrow, but at least he is OK.
This meant that there was a mad rush to set a time in Q2, with most drivers leaving it late with only one run. This plan fell apart because Buemi hit the wall coming out of the Spoon Curve and caused a yellow flag. Button, Barrichello, Alonso and Sutil did not lift off through the yellow flag in order to set a time and have all been given 5-place grid penalties as a result. As Buemi drove his damaged car back to the pits and impeded other drivers, he was also penalised 5 places. However, this was after qualifying and Button, Barrichello, Buemi and Sutil all progressed into Q3.
Q3 was also manic – Kovalainen, who is under pressure to deliver this weekend in order to secure a drive in F1 in 2010 had a scrappy qualifying session, barely making it out of Q1 after spinning at the Degner curve. This curve proved to be his undoing in Q3, as he spun again and hit the wall, causing the final red flag of the day.
So only eight drivers set times in Q3, and this is what they looked like:
(Note: I have decided to run my analysis before the penalties were issued – it is too confusing otherwise. The final grid will be addressed at the end of the post)
The top eight are very close – all within a second of each other. It is amazing that with Friday being washed out, how close the whole grid was this weekend!
But how heavy were the cars when they qualified in Q3?
Kovalainen is much heavier here, probably because he did not get the chance to do any Q3 running. Most of the others are on about the same weight, which means that the pace of the front runners is quite genuine. However, let’s have a look at how the fuel weights affected the times by recalculating the lap times on the lowest fuel load possible:
Indeed, most cars were running an honest pace today, with Sutil running a little light (and dropping one place) and Raikkonen running a little heavy (gaining two places). There is talk that Brawn fuelled their cars heavy as they expected to be penalised…
Here is the Mega-Graph, which puts it all together:
And here is the graph with fuel corrected versus Q3 Times:
Revised Grid and Race PredictionsAs stated earlier, five drivers have been given grid penalties. AUTOSPORT are reporting that no official decision has been made on the starting order as it may depend on the order in which the penalties were handed out (link to the article).
However, this is the provisional grid which they think will apply tomorrow:
Predicting the race will be difficult tomorrow, however Vettel will have been mightily helped with getting the big score over the Brawns that he needs to stay alive in the championship, on a circuit suited to the Red Bulls. I must say, it is suspiciously good timing for this to happen, isn’t it? Hmm, for those of you who love a good conspiracy you must be licking you lips over that one
I think Vettel will take it tomorrow – he has the car and the speed. I would love to see Trulli and Toyota do well (and for that matter, for Glock to race) because they need a good result to convince the boardroom that it is worth staying in F1. I might pick Hamilton to be the other guy on the podium, but that’s because I am a bit biased.
The Brawns? Well, one of them might score a few points, but the margin won’t change much. If it rains though… I had better stop before my head explodes!
Let me know what you think and who you think will win tomorrow. And remember to join me in Live Commenting during the race over at the good guys on Sidepodcast
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